CPI Surges to 4.2%, Repricing Fed Funds to Holds, Not Cuts
Annual inflation hit 4.2% on June 10, 2026, the highest since 2023, alongside a robust May jobs report, causing markets to shift Federal Reserve rate
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CPI Market Brief
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2026 surged 0.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, marking the highest annual rate since April 2023, primarily
Macro
Strong Jobs Report Shifts Fed Hike Odds to 43%, Repricing Gold and Equities
Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have dramatically shifted, with futures now pricing a 43% chance of a quarter-point rate hike by December 2026.
Macro
May CPI surges to 4.2%, driving 10Y yield higher and Bitcoin down 3.5%
U.S. annual inflation accelerated to 4.2% in May 2026, its highest level since April 2023, primarily fueled by a significant jump in energy prices.
Macro
Headline CPI Accelerates to 4.2%, Forcing a Hawkish Repricing for Fed Funds
The May 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on June 10, 2026, revealed headline inflation accelerating to a three-year high of 4.2% year-over-year.
Macro
Strong May Jobs Report Pushes 10-Year Yield to 4.52%, Delaying Fed Rate Cuts to 2027
The May employment report, released on June 5, 2026, significantly exceeded expectations by adding 172,000 nonfarm jobs, propelling the 10-year Treasury yield
Macro
Strong May Jobs Report Adds 172,000, Pushing 10-Year Yield to 4.52% and Delaying Fed Cuts
The U.S. economy added 172,000 nonfarm jobs in May, significantly exceeding expectations and causing a sharp repricing in Federal Reserve rate expectations.
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Macro
Fed hike odds hit 63% as May jobs data and 4.2% CPI forecast upend 2026 rate-cut bets
CME FedWatch Tool shows 63% probability of a 25 basis-point Fed rate hike by October 2026 as of June 9, 2026.
Macro
Fed Funds 'Hold' at 99% Probability as April Inflation Hits 3.8%, Reshaping Rate Path
Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's fed funds rate have solidified around a 'hold' at the upcoming June 16-17, 2026, FOMC meeting, with prediction
Macro
The Fed's Easing Cycle Is Over, and Kevin Warsh's First FOMC Meeting Will Prove It
The federal funds rate sits at 3.63% as of May 2026, and the path forward has shifted decisively hawkish.
Macro
Fed hike odds jump to 54% as 10-year yield nears 4.5% on robust jobs data
Market expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted dramatically, with the probability of a rate hike in 2026 now at 54% as of June 08, 2026.
Macro
172,000 jobs and a 20% hike probability: the Fed's tightest corner since 2023
May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000, nearly double consensus, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a third straight month.