The Fed Held Rates — Then the Dot Plot Blew Up the Consensus
The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% on June 17, 2026, but the decision itself was almost beside the point.
Lead story
The top story
Top stories · today
What's moving
Macro
Bitcoin's $66,000 Rebound: Geopolitical Truce and Soft Core CPI Fuel Risk-On, But Fed Looms
Bitcoin (BTC) staged a notable rebound this week, pushing towards the $66,000 mark as markets reacted to two significant catalysts: a reported ceasefire
Macro
The Hold That Isn't a Hold: What the Fed's June 2026 Decision Actually Signals Under Kevin Warsh
The Federal Reserve wrapped its two-day June 16–17 FOMC meeting today by holding the federal funds rate in the 3.50%–3.75% range, consistent with the effective
Macro
The Dot Plot Is the Decision: What the FOMC's First Warsh Meeting Actually Tells Markets
The FOMC opens its June 2026 meeting today, with a rate hold near-certain at 3.50–3.75%.
Macro
May CPI Surges to 4.2%, Repricing Fed Hike Risk Above 60% by Year-End
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly climbed to 4.2% year-over-year, driven by energy costs, shifting market expectations from anticipated rate cuts
Macro
Fed Funds Rate Holds at 3.63% as May Inflation Spikes to 4.2%, Repricing Hike Risk
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its Federal Funds rate at 3.63% during the June 16-17, 2026 FOMC meeting, despite May's CPI surging to 4.2%
Macro
May CPI's 4.2% Surge Fuels Hawkish Fed Outlook, Repricing 10Y Yields Higher
May's Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 4.2% year-on-year, the fastest annual pace in over a year, alongside a 6.5% rise in the Producer Price Index (PPI).
All articles · paginated
Latest from the desk
Macro
FEDFUNDS Market Brief
The Federal Reserve's benchmark federal funds rate remains stable at 3.50%-3.75%, with the effective rate at 3.62% as of June 10, 2026.
Macro
May Inflation Accelerates to 4.2%, Shifting Fed Rate Hike Odds and Pressuring Bitcoin
U.S. annual inflation for May 2026 surged to 4.2%, marking the third consecutive month of acceleration and pushing market expectations away from rate cuts
Macro
CPI's 4.2% surge ignites rate hike fears, sending Nasdaq down 4% and mortgage rates to 6.55%
The May Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released on June 10, 2026, revealed headline inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year, its highest level since May
Macro
CPI Market Brief
U.S. consumer inflation surged to 4.2% year-over-year in May 2026, marking the highest annual reading since April 2023.
Macro
CPI Surges to 4.2%, Repricing Fed Funds to Holds, Not Cuts
Annual inflation hit 4.2% on June 10, 2026, the highest since 2023, alongside a robust May jobs report, causing markets to shift Federal Reserve rate