172,000 jobs and a 20% hike probability: the Fed's tightest corner since 2023
May nonfarm payrolls rose 172,000, nearly double consensus, while the unemployment rate held at 4.3% for a third straight month.
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Macro
The U.S. Labor Market Is Holding Steady at 4.3% Unemployment, But Cracks Are Forming Underneath
The U.S. unemployment rate held at 4.3% in April 2026, but a cluster of softer signals, including a jump in weekly jobless claims to 215,000, the fastest S&P
Macro
Jobless Claims Tick Up, But the U.S. Labor Market Remains Broadly Stable
U.S. initial jobless claims climbed by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 215,000 for the week ending May 23, 2026, exceeding the 211,000 forecast.
Macro
U.S. Unemployment Holds at 4.3% Even as Jobless Claims Edge Higher
The U.S. labor market is sending mixed signals heading into June 2026. Weekly initial jobless claims climbed 5,000 to 215,000, topping the 211,000 economist
Macro
Inflation Is Running Too Hot for the Fed to Ignore
CPI reached 332.407 in April 2026, up from 330.293 in March and 327.46 in February.
Macro
Inflation Is Accelerating Faster Than the Fed Wants to Admit
April 2026 PCE inflation accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year, its highest reading in three years, with core PCE at 3.3%.
Macro
Market Analysis: CPI
Inflationary pressures intensified in April 2026, with both the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI)
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Macro
Market Analysis: CPI
US annual inflation accelerated to 3.8% in April 2026, up from 3.3% in March, primarily driven by an oil shock from the war in Iran, which caused energy costs
Macro
Market Analysis: UNRATE
The U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in April 2026, with economists anticipating it to remain at this level for May 2026, according to a Bloomberg
Macro
Market Analysis: UNRATE
The US unemployment rate stood at 4.3% as of April 1, 2026, with market analysts largely expecting it to remain at this level in the upcoming May 2026
Macro
Core PCE at 3.3% and CPI at 332.4 signal no June Fed cut
Manufacturing surveys, a stalled Iran ceasefire, and two consecutive months of rising CPI readings are all pointing toward one outcome: the Federal Reserve
Macro
Market Analysis: UNRATE
The U.S. labor market is under close scrutiny ahead of the May 2026 Employment Situation report, due June 5, 2026.