Mike Novogratz Looks at Bigger Picture: Bitcoin in Consolidation Now

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With Bitcoin struggling to make it past the $13,000 mark after a few attempts; dropping back towards $10,000 and trading sideways; and now falling sharply below $9,500, it would be easy to get despondent in the current market and call this a bearish turn.

However, there is still some positivity coming from well-known Bitcoin maximalists, such as founder of merchant bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz. He has called for a bit of a wider view of the overall Bitcoin market in the past nine or so months, reminding many that Bitcoin already has had a rather impressive rally - albeit spread out over a longer period of time than may be used to. 

Novogratz, speaking on Bloomberg TV, was at pains to remind people that Bitcoin  was still up over 200 percent this year alone, and that it came into 2019 priced at a low of $3,500 - now it sits just under $10,000; still very good returns on any kind of asset. 

Novogratz now believes instead of calling these last few weeks of poor market performance a return to a bear market, it would be much more apt to describe it as consolidation as Bitcoin - still quite volatile but working on longer frames - is cooling off after a sustained rally. 

Looking at the bigger picture

It is always easy to look at the Bitcoin chart and note it has lost seven percent over the last 24 hours, however, Novogratz has tried to remind people that in the bigger picture, this latest drop is insignificant. 

“Bitcoin started the year at $3,800, traded at $3,500 and now it’s at $10,200 and so it’s up 200% odd percent already,” he told Bloomberg. “It has had a huge run, and so I think this is a bit of consolidation.”

There have been a number of macroeconomic factors that could be considered when looking at Bitcoin over the last year, and determining the reason for its price rise. It has clearly broken the shackles of the 2018 bear market, and looks to have emerged a slightly different asset for it. 

Bitcoin’s growth to the $10,000 mark, for instance, was not characterised by daily $1,000 gains, as was seen in 2017 when speculators flooded the market - this time it was far more measured, and controlled, and probably predicated on institutional involvement. 

The safe haven argument

There were even some who were starting to legitimize Bitcoin so much as to call it an alternative safe haven asset in a time where a global recession looks to be looming. Bitcoin started to rise when news emerged of Federal Rate Cuts in the US, a trade war with China, and the printing of money and new monetary policy from the European Central Bank. This argument is still up for debate, but it does show that investors are starting to see Bitcoin as something far more tangible and attainable, rather than purely speculative as was the case less than two years ago. 

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