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Outrageous Bitcoin predictions have been part and parcel of the market for many years now, and the reason they persist is that the cryptocurrency often matches what is being forecast. A recent prediction, by Dan Morehead of Pantera Capital, sees Bitcoin reaching $42,000 in the next five months. 

Morehead said on a podcast with Laura Shin that, based on past trends of Bitcoin’s price movements on a logarithmic scale, there is a potential price move to $356,000 within three years. 

By this equation, the end of 2019 should see Bitcoin reaching a massive figure of $42,000.

Gartner hype cycle

Morehead, unlike someone like John McAfee who’s thumb-sucked a $1 million prediction, has based his prediction on a few more facts and figures, as well as historical data and methodologies. 

Morehead looked to the Gartner Hype Cycle, which is a method of interpreting the wide-ranging levels of hype that can occur around new technologies.

“A small kernel of something very important gets people to be crazed about Bitcoin and then the trough of disillusionment occurs. And we’ve already gone through two of those cycles in the six years that we’ve been investing in it,” said Morehead.

Indeed, Bitcoin as a technology and a market, has seen incredible hype and excitement in just a few short years. So much so that it has been called a bubble. 

However, the technology is still nascent and emerging, and for Morehead that plays a part as it has still not reached it potential as a technology, and in the market. 

“We still have another solid ten years to go before this is fully fleshed out,” added Morehead.

Halfway back

Morehead is aware that his prediction sounds outlandish, however, looking at past performances, it is well in the range to reach these figures. 

This thinking from Pantera that says $42,000 price by the end of 2019, then breaks down to $122,000 price by the end of 2020, and a $365,000 price by the end of 2021.

“I know that sounds crazy, but essentially, we’re half way back there. It’s right on the trend line, and I think it’s a good shot that by the end of the year we hit that,” said Morehead.

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