Will Bitcoin Finally Break $100K? Trump’s Trade Deal Hint Sparks New Rally

Bitcoin? is once again flirting with the $100,000 milestone, reigniting excitement among investors and newcomers alike. In the past week, BTC has surged from roughly $88,000 to the mid-$ ninety-thousands, driven not only by traditional catalysts such as ETF inflows and Fed policy but also by a surprise announcement: former President Donald Trump teased a “major trade deal” with a “big, and highly respected, country” that “could be the first of many.” This combination of macroeconomic clarity and geopolitical optimism has breathed new life into crypto markets.

In this article, we’ll unpack:

• Why Trump’s trade-deal tease matters for Bitcoin? and broader markets

• The technical roadmap to $100K and beyond, explained simply

• Fundamental drivers: Fed policy, trade tensions and institutional flows

• Price scenarios from conservative to aggressive targets

• Practical strategies for both beginners and seasoned traders

Whether you’re dipping a toe into crypto for the first time or refining your trading plan, this guide delivers clear, professional insights—no Wall Street jargon required.

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Why a Trade Deal Tease Moves Bitcoin?

Trump’s Oval Office Announcement

On May 7, President Trump used his Truth Social platform to announce a press conference at the Oval Office the next day, promising details of a “major trade deal with representatives of a big, highly respected country” and hinting it would be “the first of many.” Although he didn’t name the partner, multiple outlets—including The New York Times—pointed to the United Kingdomcrypto.news. Markets interpreted this as a sign that global trade tensions—especially tariff battles with China and Europe—might ease, boosting risk appetite across asset classes.

From Trade Tensions to Risk-On Mode

Cryptocurrencies are often treated like other risk assets: they suffer when uncertainty spikes and rally when clarity returns. Analyst Rania Gule of XS.com noted that Trump’s statement “restored global risk appetite,” which had been dampened by recent tariff threats and economic unpredictabilityBarron's. In the 24 hours following the tease, Bitcoin? jumped nearly 3%, while Ethereum?, XRP and Solana also posted gains of between 4% and 6% as the S&P 500 climbed over 1% in tandemBarron'sBarron's.

Fed Hold Amplifies the Impact

Compounding the optimism was the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited “heightened uncertainty” from trade policy as one reason to pause tightening, a dovish signal for markets. Lower borrowing costs and continued liquidity? tend to push capital into high-growth assets, including Bitcoin?.

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The Technical Roadmap: From $95K to $100K

Key Support and Resistance Levels

1. Support Zone ($90K–$92K)
   Bitcoin? found buyers near the 50-day moving average around $90,000, holding firm despite recent volatility.

2. Current Resistance ($96K–$98K)
   Sellers have clustered just below $98,000, capping rallies in the past two days.

3. Milestone Target ($100K)
   The round-number magnet at $100,000 will test both retail enthusiasm and institutional resolve.

A decisive daily close above $98,000 would open the door to $100,000 and beyond—especially if volume? confirms the breakout.

Momentum Indicators Made Simple

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  Currently near 65, the RSI suggests bullish momentum but still shy of overbought (70+), leaving room for further gains.

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
  The MACD line crossed above its signal line last week, a classic buy signal that often precedes sustained rallies.

Measured-Move Projection

Chart patterns show Bitcoin? breaking out of a shallow falling-wedge from April. By measuring the wedge’s height and adding it to the breakout point, one projects a first target of approximately $107,000. A follow-through push—fueled by continued ETF inflows and trade optimism—could see BTC test $115,000 in the weeks ahead.

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Fundamental Drivers Beyond Charts

Institutional ETF Flows

After a brief pause, U.S. spot-Bitcoin? ETFs have seen renewed net inflows—estimated at $300–400 million per week. Every dollar into ETFs often means one less dollar available on exchanges, tightening supply and supporting prices.

Global Trade Climate

Trade tensions with China and Europe have loomed over markets for months. Trump’s hint of a UK deal—and reports that tariffs could drop “within weeks”—has shifted sentiment. Markets now believe geopolitical risks are receding, making risk-assets like Bitcoin? more attractive.

U.S. State-Level Adoption

Adding fuel to Bitcoin?’s fire, several U.S. states have moved to embrace crypto. New Hampshire became the first state to allow up to 5% of its reserves in digital assets, favoring Bitcoin? given its market cap threshold of $500 billionBarron's. Similar bills in Texas and Arizona signal growing institutional endorsement, reinforcing Bitcoin?’s credentials as digital gold.

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