Bitcoin is once again flirting with the $100,000 milestone, reigniting excitement among investors and newcomers alike. In the past week, BTC has surged from roughly $88,000 to the mid-$ ninety-thousands, driven not only by traditional catalysts such as ETF inflows and Fed policy but also by a surprise announcement: former President Donald Trump teased a “major trade deal” with a “big, and highly respected, country” that “could be the first of many.” This combination of macroeconomic clarity and geopolitical optimism has breathed new life into crypto markets.

In this article, we’ll unpack:

• Why Trump’s trade-deal tease matters for Bitcoin and broader markets

• The technical roadmap to $100K and beyond, explained simply

• Fundamental drivers: Fed policy, trade tensions and institutional flows

• Price scenarios from conservative to aggressive targets

• Practical strategies for both beginners and seasoned traders

Whether you’re dipping a toe into crypto for the first time or refining your trading plan, this guide delivers clear, professional insights—no Wall Street jargon required.

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Why a Trade Deal Tease Moves Bitcoin

Trump’s Oval Office Announcement

On May 7, President Trump used his Truth Social platform to announce a press conference at the Oval Office the next day, promising details of a “major trade deal with representatives of a big, highly respected country” and hinting it would be “the first of many.” Although he didn’t name the partner, multiple outlets—including The New York Times—pointed to the United Kingdomcrypto.news. Markets interpreted this as a sign that global trade tensions—especially tariff battles with China and Europe—might ease, boosting risk appetite across asset classes.

From Trade Tensions to Risk-On Mode

Cryptocurrencies are often treated like other risk assets: they suffer when uncertainty spikes and rally when clarity returns. Analyst Rania Gule of XS.com noted that Trump’s statement “restored global risk appetite,” which had been dampened by recent tariff threats and economic unpredictabilityBarron's. In the 24 hours following the tease, Bitcoin jumped nearly 3%, while Ethereum, XRP and Solana also posted gains of between 4% and 6% as the S&P 500 climbed over 1% in tandemBarron'sBarron's.

Fed Hold Amplifies the Impact

Compounding the optimism was the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%. Fed Chair Jerome Powell cited “heightened uncertainty” from trade policy as one reason to pause tightening, a dovish signal for markets. Lower borrowing costs and continued liquidity tend to push capital into high-growth assets, including Bitcoin.

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The Technical Roadmap: From $95K to $100K

Key Support and Resistance Levels

1. Support Zone ($90K–$92K)
   Bitcoin found buyers near the 50-day moving average around $90,000, holding firm despite recent volatility.

2. Current Resistance ($96K–$98K)
   Sellers have clustered just below $98,000, capping rallies in the past two days.

3. Milestone Target ($100K)
   The round-number magnet at $100,000 will test both retail enthusiasm and institutional resolve.

A decisive daily close above $98,000 would open the door to $100,000 and beyond—especially if volume confirms the breakout.

Momentum Indicators Made Simple

• RSI (Relative Strength Index):
  Currently near 65, the RSI suggests bullish momentum but still shy of overbought (70+), leaving room for further gains.

• MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):
  The MACD line crossed above its signal line last week, a classic buy signal that often precedes sustained rallies.

Measured-Move Projection

Chart patterns show Bitcoin breaking out of a shallow falling-wedge from April. By measuring the wedge’s height and adding it to the breakout point, one projects a first target of approximately $107,000. A follow-through push—fueled by continued ETF inflows and trade optimism—could see BTC test $115,000 in the weeks ahead.

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Fundamental Drivers Beyond Charts

Institutional ETF Flows

After a brief pause, U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs have seen renewed net inflows—estimated at $300–400 million per week. Every dollar into ETFs often means one less dollar available on exchanges, tightening supply and supporting prices.

Global Trade Climate

Trade tensions with China and Europe have loomed over markets for months. Trump’s hint of a UK deal—and reports that tariffs could drop “within weeks”—has shifted sentiment. Markets now believe geopolitical risks are receding, making risk-assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

U.S. State-Level Adoption

Adding fuel to Bitcoin’s fire, several U.S. states have moved to embrace crypto. New Hampshire became the first state to allow up to 5% of its reserves in digital assets, favoring Bitcoin given its market cap threshold of $500 billionBarron's. Similar bills in Texas and Arizona signal growing institutional endorsement, reinforcing Bitcoin’s credentials as digital gold.

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Price Scenarios: From Cautious to Bold

Conservative Case: $100K–$110K

• Catalysts: Clear Fed hold, UK trade deal confirmation, steady ETF flows

• Pathway: BTC clears $98K, tests $100K, then stalls near $105K as profit-taking kicks in.

• Timeline: 2–4 weeks

Base Case: $110K–$130K

• Catalysts: Multiple trade deals announced, sustained institutional inflows, renewed retail FOMO

• Pathway: A successful $100K break attracts algorithmic buyers, propelling BTC through $120K to $130K.

• Timeline: 1–2 months

Bullish Case: $130K–$150K+

• Catalysts: Surprise rate cut by the Fed, major corporate treasury allocations, global regulatory clarity

• Pathway: Parabolic momentum pushes BTC toward $150K, testing all-time high territory.

• Timeline: 3–6 months

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Risks to Watch

1. Sell-the-News Pullback
   If Trump’s promise disappoints—no concrete deal or minor tariff tweaks—Bitcoin may retrace initial gains.

2. Fed Hawkish Surprise
   A pivot back to rate hikes in response to stickier inflation could sap risk appetite.

3. Geopolitical Shocks
   Escalations elsewhere—Middle East tensions, Russian sanctions—could drive capital back into safe havens like the dollar and gold.

4. Technical Reversals
   Failure to hold $90K support may trigger stop-loss cascades, sending BTC back to $85K.

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Practical Strategies for All Skill Levels

For Newcomers

• Start Small: Allocate 1–2% of your portfolio to Bitcoin.

• Use Dollar-Cost Averaging: Buy on dips between $90K and $95K to smooth out volatility.

• Set Alerts: Have notifications for $98K, $100K and $105K to react quickly.

For Intermediate Traders

• Tiered Entries & Exits:

  • Buy 50% at $95K, add 25% at $98K, final 25% on a close above $100K.

  • Take profits in tranches: $105K, $110K, $120K.

• Stop-Losses:

  • Place initial stops below $90K to protect against deep retracements.

For Aggressive Bulls

• Leverage with Caution: Use 2×–3× long positions in futures or options, but cap exposure to avoid liquidations.

• Spread Strategies: Sell covered calls at $110K to generate yield while holding core positions.

• Monitor News Feeds: Quick reactions to Fed or trade-deal headlines can make or break leveraged plays.

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The Bigger Picture: Crypto’s Role in a Shifting World

Bitcoin’s flirtation with $100,000 isn’t just a price story—it reflects a broader evolution:

• Digital Gold Narrative: As fiat currencies fluctuate, BTC’s fixed supply and global reach make it an attractive inflation hedge.

• Institutional Acceptance: ETFs, state-level reserve bills and corporate treasuries signal growing mainstream legitimacy.

• Geopolitical Diversification: Trade-deal optimism now shares the stage with digital sovereignty debates, as nations explore CBDCs and decentralized finance.

In this dynamic landscape, Bitcoin serves both as a speculative asset and a barometer of global economic confidence.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s approach to the $100,000 milestone has captivated markets, with Trump’s trade-deal tease and a dovish Fed adding fresh fuel to the rally. Whether BTC tops out near $110K in the coming weeks or embarks on a prolonged surge toward $150K hinges on a mix of technical breakouts, macro clarity and institutional participation. For novices and experts alike, the key is to balance ambition with risk management: define your price targets, set clear stop-losses and stay attuned to the catalysts that matter. As BTC draws ever closer to six figures, one thing is clear—every trader, investor and crypto-curious onlooker will be watching.