The 2018 Consensus Will Not Blow The Market Cap

At this moment, the community is very passionate about the fourth Annual Blockchain Technology Conference, which runs from May 14-16, 2018 at the Hilton Midtown hotel in New York. In the opinion of experts, this event will have a bullish effect on the market. We talked about it a few months ago in an article. But what about in reality? Is there a real correlation between this three-day conference and the forecast?

Why all this excitement around the event?

Thomas Lee, one of the best known names in the sphere of investment crypto, made an observation or more precisely a prediction for the least stunning and difficult to challenge. He explains that the annual Coindesk Blockchain Consensus will really boost the cryptocurrency market.

Indeed, several experts have estimated that each year, for four years, the weeks following the Consensus are punctuated by a meteoric rise in the value of cryptocurrencies. Therefore, they associate this gain in value with the event of Coindesk. Thomas Lee said on a chart he shared, that in September 2015, 500 people, organizations and companies had taken part in the event. The following year, in May 2016, the event counted 1500 participants. In May 2017, a total of 2,750 participants honored the event with their presence. This year, this figure has almost tripled. 7,000 participants including financial institutions, government agencies, investment firms, tech companies, media, are expected at the Hilton Midtown hotel in New York.

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According to Thomas Lee’s analysis, there is a correlation between the number of participants and the level of increase that occurs each year after consensus. And this year, with 7000 participants, almost three times more than last year, the meters will probably explode according to this expert from Fundstrat Global. He says that the “2018 consensus will have three times more impact on the cryptocurrency market”.

All this excitement, is it exaggerated?

While it is true that a small observation of the evolution curve of crypto-currencies over the three preceding years makes it possible to notice that the market of crypto-currencies knows each time a certain increase after the consensus, it is necessary, however , specify that this increase is not automatic.

It has even been noticed, as can be seen from the graphs below, that the event is followed by a loss of value over a few days or weeks before the market corrects itself to return to the upside.

Trend curve of Bitcoin after the consensus of September 10, 2015. It is noted that from September 12 to 16, there was a sharp decline before the value rises again.

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Evolutionary Curve of Bitcoin after the Consensus May 2-4, 2016.

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Evolutionary Curve of Bitcoin after the Consensus May 2-4, 2016.

The analysis of these graphs shows that the Consensus is a positive influence, but not an event that alone can explode the price of Bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies. And all this excitement around the event that is taking place right now on the New York side is perhaps a little exaggerated.

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