As the world awaits former President Donald Trump’s highly anticipated 100-day address to Congress, cryptocurrency investors are asking a tantalizing question: Will Trump’s policy signals be the catalyst that finally launches Bitcoin past the $100,000 threshold? In the past two weeks alone, BTC has sprinted from its mid-April low near $74,000 up to the $95,000 area, buoyed by renewed ETF inflows, Fed commentary and a softer U.S. dollar. But technical charts suggest a critical hurdle lies ahead at the six-figure mark, and only a major policy shake-up may provide the impulse needed.

In this in-depth forecast, we’ll explore:

• Recent price action and key technical levels

• How Trump’s speech could influence tariffs, Fed policy and crypto regulation

• On-chain signals revealing supply dynamics

• Analyst scenarios ranging from conservative $100K targets to bold $200K calls

• Practical strategies for traders and investors

By the end, you’ll understand the roadmap to $100,000—and whether it requires a Trump-driven “moonshot.”

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Bitcoin’s Recent Rally: Context and Catalysts

From $74K to $95K in Two Weeks

In early April, Bitcoin hit a local trough near $74,000 as profit-taking and macro uncertainty weighed on risk assets. Since then, BTC has climbed roughly 28%, retesting $90,000 and pausing just below $95,000. Several factors have helped power this rebound:

• ETF Inflows Resuming
  U.S. spot-Bitcoin ETFs reported positive net subscriptions for the past three weeks, reversing the outflows that plagued March. These inflows not only lift price but also drain coins from exchanges, reducing immediate sell-pressure.

• Fed Policy Clarity
  President Trump’s public statements calling for a rate cut—coupled with Fed minutes underscoring a patient stance—have softened Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, making yield-free assets like Bitcoin more attractive.

• Trade-War De-Escalation
  Rumors that Trump may dial back tariffs on Chinese goods lifted risk sentiment. With reduced fears of economic slowdown, capital has rotated back into equities and crypto.

• Technical Breakout
  Bitcoin recently broke out of a four-month falling-wedge pattern, confirming a close above the 200-day moving average. Volume upticks on each push higher signal genuine buying interest rather than a fleeting pump.

Why the $100K Mark Matters

The $100,000 level is more than a round number. It:

• Triggers Retail Psychology
  Milestones drive headlines, social-media chatter and click-bait that lure in momentum-chasing traders.

• Unclogs Supply
  Many long-term holders set sell orders just above $100K. Flipping those orders would add fuel to further rallies.

• Unlocks New Pipelines
  Some pension funds and corporate treasuries have internal rules that restrict crypto allocation above key price points. Breaching $100K could unlock fresh institutional demand.

Understanding the technical and fundamental underpinnings of this hurdle is essential—especially if a Trump-style policy shock is waiting in the wings.

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Technical Analysis: Mapping the Path to $100K

Support and Resistance Zones

1. Support at $85K–$86K
   Anchored by the 50-day moving average (currently around $85,500), this zone has absorbed dips in recent sessions and marks a high-confidence buying area.

2. Resistance at $95K–$96K
   A cluster of limit sells has formed here, aligning with recent swing highs and the top of the rising channel from April’s lows.

3. Key Barrier at $100K
   Beyond the current resistance, the round-number magnet zone between $100,000–$102,000 will test buyers’ resolve and determine whether BTC has the momentum for a sustained breakout.

Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14-Day)
  After climbing from oversold (below 35) to neutral-bullish (~60), Bitcoin’s RSI shows room for further gains before overbought warnings emerge (above 70).

• MACD Crossover
  The daily MACD line crossed above its signal line last week, signaling an early buy signal that often precedes multi-week rallies.

• Volume Behavior
  Rising on breakouts yet tapering on pullbacks, volume patterns reflect healthy accumulation rather than euphoric spikes.

Measured-Move Projections

Applying the measured-move technique to the recently broken wedge:

• Projected Target 1: $107,000 (height of the wedge added to the breakout point)

• Projected Target 2: $115,000 (if ETF inflows and policy catalysts continue)

With these technical markers in mind, the next chapter depends on whether Trump’s speech delivers market-moving announcements.

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Fundamental Influence: Trump’s 100-Day Speech

Potential Crypto-Friendly Signals

President Trump’s second-term speech holds the promise of addressing key issues for crypto markets:

1. Tariff Policy Adjustments
   Should Trump announce reductions or delays in tariffs—particularly on Chinese imports—investors may interpret this as a sign of easing global tensions, boosting risk appetite and lifting BTC.

2. Fed Chair Commentary
   Historically, Trump’s public criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a desire for looser monetary policy. Any reaffirmation of Powell’s tenure or calls for rate cuts could further soften yields and strengthen Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.

3. Strategic Reserve Proposal
   Reports have circulated about a “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve,” akin to holding BTC alongside gold in national treasuries. Official mention or committee formation could spark institutional interest and prompt large on-chain flows.

4. Stablecoin and DeFi Frameworks
   Clarity on stablecoin regulation—such as a federal charter or clearer stablecoin definition—would reduce uncertainty in DeFi and bolster confidence in crypto infrastructures.

Market Expectations and Risks

• Sell-the-News Potential
  If investors buy in anticipation of bullish announcements only to find tepid or vague policy language, BTC could suffer a post-speech pullback.

• Regulatory Disappointment
  Failure to address key crypto issues—or worse, hints at increased oversight—might stall the rally and push BTC back toward key support levels.

• Geopolitical Surprises
  Unexpected statements on broader foreign-policy issues or national emergencies could overshadow any crypto references, shifting markets abruptly.

Given these high-stakes dynamics, traders should prepare both for a strong breakout and for a classic “sell-the-news” scenario.

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On-Chain Metrics: Supply, Demand and Whale Behavior

Exchange Outflows

Data shows over $4 billion in Bitcoin leaving exchanges since Trump’s tariff-delay remarks, reinforcing scarcity. Supply reductions on centralized platforms tend to coincide with price strength, as fewer sellers remain.

Whale Accumulation

Transactions moving 1,000 BTC or more to cold wallets jumped by 25% in the past week. Large holders appear to be tucking away coins at current levels, betting on higher prices.

ETF Creation Units

Authorized participants have created 15,000 BTC worth of new ETF shares in the last two weeks, underlining sustained institutional demand despite choppy markets.

Monitoring these on-chain flows offers insight into whether the technical breakout is underpinned by real accumulation or fleeting momentum.

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Analyst Scenarios: From $100K to $200K

Conservative Case: $100K–$120K

• Driver: Technical breakout aided by mild policy support.

• Path: BTC clears $100K, taps $107K (measured move), then stalls near $115K–$120K as profit-taking sets in.

• Timeframe: 2–6 weeks post-speech.

Base Case: $120K–$150K

• Driver: Strong ETF inflows (>=$300 million/week), clear tariff de-escalation, Fed rate-cut signal.

• Path: $100K breach accelerates momentum toward $140K, approaching $150K if macro tailwinds stay intact.

• Timeframe: 1–3 months.

Bullish Case: $200K+

• Driver: Formal “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” announcement, major corporate treasury buys, expanded stablecoin regulation.

• Path: A sustained break above $150K triggers $180K, then a parabolic move toward $200K by year-end.

• Timeframe: 6–12 months.

Extreme Bull: $250K–$300K

• Driver: Global adoption surge, central-bank digital currency (CBDC) integration with public chains, unprecedented institutional flows.

• Path: Bitcoin becomes perceived as “digital gold 2.0,” capturing massive reserve allocations and retail FOMO.

• Timeframe: 12+ months.

Traders should align their exposure to these scenarios based on risk tolerance, time horizon and conviction in Trump-related catalysts.

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Risk Management and Strategy

1. Position Sizing

   • Limit Bitcoin exposure to no more than 20–30% of your total crypto allocation.

2. Tiered Entries

   • Scale into positions at $90K, $95K and $100K to average cost and mitigate whipsaws.

3. Protective Stops

   • Place stop-loss orders below key supports ($85K) to cut losses if the rally fails.

4. News-Driven Alerts

   • Set alerts around the speech start time and for any immediate policy headlines.

5. Diversification

   • Balance BTC bets with less volatile assets (e.g., large-cap altcoins, stablecoin yield strategies) to cushion potential drawdowns.

By marrying technical playbooks with event-driven risk frameworks, investors can capture upside while limiting surprises.

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Conclusion

Bitcoin’s charge from $74,000 to $95,000 highlights the resilient demand for digital assets, but the crucial test lies at the $100,000 threshold. Former President Trump’s upcoming 100-day speech could tilt the scales—either propelling BTC into uncharted territory or triggering a classic sell-the-news cooldown. Traders should watch technical breakouts, on-chain flows and policy snippets closely, preparing for both conservative $100K targets and ambitious $200K+ scenarios. With clear strategies for entries, exits and risk controls, you can navigate this high-stakes environment and position yourself for whatever Trump’s address delivers.