Population Trends: The Top Ten Countries with the Lowest Child Population

June 26, 2023 | 


Joanna Newman



As we explore the landscape of global demographics, certain patterns and trends become evident. A particularly interesting trend is the decline in the number of children in several countries around the world. This article will shed light on the top ten countries with the lowest child populations, delve into the percentage of children per family, and project an estimate on when these nations may cease to have children altogether. This investigation provides a window into the future, where these patterns could dictate new paradigms of global population distribution and societal structures.

1. Japan

Japan leads the pack with the lowest child population globally. Despite having one of the world´s largest overall populations, children make up just 12.3% of it. On average, each family has 1.44 children. Given the current rate of decline, it is estimated that by 3776, if nothing changes, Japan might not have children anymore. However, this is a theoretical extrapolation and real-world changes could alter this outcome.

2. South Korea

Similar to its neighbor Japan, South Korea is also experiencing a low birth rate. Children account for around 13.5% of the population, with an average of 1.1 children per family. The current trends suggest that by 2750, South Korea may not have children if current birth rates persist.

3. Italy

The European continent also witnesses its share of low child populations. Italy´s percentage of children stands at 13.8% with families typically having 1.29 children. If the existing trend continues, it could lead to Italy not having children anymore by 3300.

4. Spain

Spain, another European country, shows similar trends to Italy. With 14.1% of its population comprising children and an average of 1.33 children per family, Spain might stop having children by 3200 if the existing trend continues.

5. Greece

Greece´s child population stands at 14.4%, with each family having about 1.35 children on average. At the current pace, Greece may cease to have children by around the year 3150.

6. Portugal

Portugal´s child population constitutes about 14.6% of its total population. Each family has around 1.31 children. If the current pattern continues, Portugal may stop having children by 3300.

7. Germany

In Germany, children make up approximately 14.8% of the population, with families having an average of 1.57 children. If the current trend persists, Germany might stop having children by 3600.

8. Hungary

In Hungary, the percentage of children in the population is around 14.9%, with families typically having 1.45 children. If the current trend remains unchanged, Hungary might not have children anymore by 3770.

9. Bulgaria

Children make up about 15.1% of Bulgaria´s population, with an average of 1.56 children per family. According to current trends, Bulgaria could stop having children by around 3610.

10. Croatia

In Croatia, children account for around 15.2% of the population. Each family has about 1.42 children on average. If the trend continues as is, Croatia may not have children by 3750.


The trend of low child populations is a serious issue that many countries grapple with today. The top ten countries on this list, Japan, South Korea, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Germany, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Croatia, reflect a diverse cross-section of cultures, economies, and political structures. Despite this diversity, they share a common challenge of declining birth rates.

While the projections indicate an extreme outcome of these nations not having children at all, it is essential to remember that these are based on current trends. Countries can and do change their demographics through policies, societal shifts, and unforeseen circumstances. It is, however, important to consider the implications of these trends on the global community. The declining child population could bring about a plethora of societal and economic challenges, from the sustainability of welfare systems to the preservation of cultural heritage.

As we move forward, it will be vital for these nations and the world at large to address these issues head-on. Demographics may not be an easy topic to tackle, but understanding these trends is an essential first step toward creating a sustainable future for all.